The global toy market staged a remarkable comeback in 2025. After three years of declining figures, the industry is growing strongly again — and for some surprising reasons. Anyone selling toys today is no longer selling to children alone. In this article we take a look at the market volume, the key trends, the leading players, the central trade fairs, as well as the countries and niches with the greatest potential.

How big is the toy market really?

The answer depends on how you define “toys.” According to the industry-standard figures from market research firm Circana, the global market for traditional toys reached around USD 123 billion in 2025 — an increase of 8 percent over the previous year and growth of 24 percent over the last five years.

If you include video and digital games, some market research institutes arrive at a considerably larger volume of, in some cases, more than USD 350 billion. For the physical toy segment, however, most credible estimates range between USD 112 and 130 billion for 2025. The forecasts are consistently optimistic: depending on the source, annual growth of around 4 to 7 percent is expected through the mid-2030s, which could lift the market volume above USD 200 billion.

Particularly noteworthy: in 2025, for the first time in Circana’s tracking history, all twelve major core markets (the so-called G12: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States) grew simultaneously. The Netherlands posted the fastest growth at plus 15 percent, while Brazil was the slowest at plus 2 percent.

The most important trends

Adults conquer the nursery: the kidult boom

The strongest growth driver today is not children but “kidults” — teenagers and adults aged 12 and over who buy toys for themselves. This group now accounts for roughly one third of total toy sales. Germany is a special case here: with a kidult share of around 35 percent, it is both the largest market and the one most strongly shaped by adult buyers in Europe. By comparison, in Italy the share is about 28 percent.

Licensed products and the “Joy Factor”

Circana describes the upswing as the result of a “Joy Factor” — the interplay of entertainment, collecting passion and emotional connection. This is driven above all by licensed products: their sales rose 15 percent in 2025, reaching a 37 percent market share, the highest level ever recorded. The most popular license worldwide, for the fourth year in a row, is Pokémon, followed by classics such as Hot Wheels, Marvel, Barbie and Star Wars. Cinema films, streaming series and video games act as direct sales engines for the corresponding toys.

Collectibles and the blind-box phenomenon

Collectibles were the fastest-growing category with an increase of 32 percent and now account for almost 19 percent of global sales. The prime example is the Chinese company Pop Mart, whose “Labubu” figures have become a global cult object. The sales principle: blind boxes, in which buyers only find out which figure they have received after opening — a mechanism that generates enormous demand via social media and the appeal of the rare.

Other defining developments

•      STEM and educational toys: parents invest specifically in products that promote cognitive development, creativity and scientific understanding.

•      Sustainability: environmentally friendly materials, wooden toys and biodegradable products are gaining importance.

•      Smart and AI-powered toys: technology is increasingly making its way into the nursery.

•      E-commerce and social commerce: online retail is the fastest-growing sales channel; platforms such as TikTok Shop are developing into serious sales channels.

The most important players

At the top sits, undisputed, the LEGO Group. In 2025, with revenue of around DKK 83.5 billion (about USD 12 billion), the Danish company delivered its most profitable year to date, surpassing the combined revenues of its next-largest competitors for the first time. As market leader, LEGO holds a share of more than 6 percent.

Following are the major U.S. corporations Mattel (Barbie, Hot Wheels) and Hasbro (whose 2025 growth was driven above all by the card game Magic: The Gathering), along with Spin Master, the electronics specialist VTech, and the Japanese group Bandai Namco. Together, the five largest players account for around 38 percent market share.

A new challenger, however, is shaking up the rankings considerably: Pop Mart increased its revenue by 185 percent in 2025 thanks to the Labubu hype, to around USD 5.4 billion — shifting the balance of power in favor of Asian brands.

The central industry trade fairs

Anyone looking to gain an international foothold cannot avoid the major trade fairs:

•      Spielwarenmesse Nuremberg — the world’s largest B2B trade fair in the industry. At the anniversary edition in 2026, more than 2,300 exhibitors from 68 countries presented their new products to around 59,000 trade visitors from 121 nations. The next edition takes place from 2 to 6 February 2027.

•      Hong Kong Toys & Games Fair — the most important industry gathering in Asia and a key gateway to the region’s sourcing and sales markets.

•      Toy Fair New York — the central platform for the North American market.

•      SPIEL Essen — the world’s leading consumer (B2C) fair for board games.

•      Kids India (Mumbai) — a growing access point to the Indian market.

Which product groups are particularly in demand?

Growth in 2025 was concentrated in a few, but very dynamic, categories:

•      Games and puzzles — the strongest increase, driven above all by trading card games such as Pokémon.

•      Building sets and construction toys — a robust long-runner that works for children and adults alike.

•      Collectibles and trading cards — the boom category par excellence.

•      Educational and experimental toys (STEM) — driven by parents’ desire for developmentally supportive play.

On the other hand, plush toys and dolls came under pressure in 2025 — following the hype around brands such as Squishmallows in the previous year, a noticeable cooling set in.

Where is demand highest?

North America remains the largest region with a revenue share of around one third, with the USA by far the largest single market at more than USD 45 billion. Europe is also a heavyweight — Germany is regarded as the lead market here, particularly for the affluent kidult target group.

The highest growth momentum, however, is shown by the Asia-Pacific region. China is increasingly developing from a pure production location into an innovation and brand country, as the example of Pop Mart impressively demonstrates. Emerging markets with growing purchasing power and young populations — such as in South Asia and Latin America — are also continuously expanding the global demand base.

Interesting niche markets

Alongside the mass market, attractive niches with often above-average margins are emerging:

•      Art toys and designer collectible figures — blind boxes from Pop Mart, but also brands such as Sonny Angel and Smiski.

•      Sustainable wooden and eco toys — for environmentally conscious parents.

•      Adult collectibles — high-quality collector editions for the solvent kidult clientele.

•      Smart and AI-powered toys — a technology-driven field of the future.

•      Specialized educational toys — for example Montessori or inclusive products.

Conclusion: a market full of opportunities — if you know it

The global toy market is as dynamic as rarely before: growing, international, driven by new target groups and fast-moving trends. But this is precisely where the challenge lies. Any manufacturer wanting to enter a new market must know the right distribution partners, the relevant importers and the specific access requirements of the target country.

This is exactly where country-specific market entry studies come in: they provide the concrete basis for tapping into particularly interesting toy markets in a targeted way and with pre-qualified contacts. You can find corresponding studies for numerous countries at easyprospect.com.br.

Sources

•      Circana / The Toy Association — 2026 Global Toy Report and press releases on 2025 market developments (toyassociation.org, circana.com, globenewswire.com)

•      International Council of Toy Industries (ICTI) — Global Sales Data (toy-icti.org)

•      Spielwarenmesse eG — industry news and trade fair information (spielwarenmesse.de); Kidults report; Möbelmarkt (moebelmarkt.de)

•      The LEGO Group — 2025 Full Year Results (lego.com)

•      Hasbro, Inc. — Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results (businesswire.com)

•      Market research reports on market volume: IMARC Group, Grand View Research, Fortune Business Insights, Future Market Insights, Technavio, Market Research Future

•      Coverage of Pop Mart / Labubu: Visual Capitalist, Finimize, S&P Global, Axios, WWD, Retail Merchandiser

Note: This blog article was created with the support of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The market figures cited come from publicly available sources; individual figures from different institutes may deviate from one another, as definitions and survey methods vary.